Blogage

Predictions 2008 was my first year for making predictions on blogage. If you want to know how I did, click here: http://blogs.menomoneefallsnow.com/blogage/archive/2008/12/26/predictions-2008-how-did-i-do.aspx 

I made the mistake of embedding other predictions into my main predictions taking my accuracy way down. My first prediction of 2009: I will not make that mistake twice.

1. The next shoe to drop in the financial crisis will be the day of reckoning for the credit card companies. This will peak in 2009. We should begin seeing hysterical headlines about May of this year. Side note: The impact of credit derivatives on the collateralized debt obligation will totally wipe out all of the equity the investors put in. This includes SE Wisconsin school districts (not Meno. Falls or Sussex Hamilton).

2. The dollar will fall below its lowest value in 10 years.  It fetched a record-low US$1.3912 against the euro in 2008.

3. Ethanol will pretty much be discredited, by those who have the mental ability to make change from a nickel, as a viable alternative natural fuel in 2009.  If there is a low yield corn crop it will expedite the awakening from this fad binge.

4. In spite of all the deaths caused by seven to eleven time convicted drunken drivers, the state legislature will still ponder what we can do to stop the carnage. Maybe they will consider lowering the legal limit. Maybe they will consider raising the drinking age to 25. Maybe they will sue alcohol companies for millions, so we can run more MADD advertising (or spend the money on budget shortfalls when we overspend). It will never occur to them to lock up 5^th  time offenders where they can never get behind a vehicle and kill your children. My prediction: They will do nothing to ensure mandatory prison for +3 time offenders.

5. The smarter municipalities will be far more reasonable when dealing with developers in their communities. The smarter communities will realize there are far more limited development dollars and will be more accommodating instead of changing deals at the last minute or asking for more gingerbread and greenery at the 11^th hour of a deal. TIFs will grow in usage. Alternatively, developers will more readily walk to the next community when faced with unreasonable demands.

6. Israel will attack Iran in an attempt to destroy the nuclear program there. Other Arab countries will huff and puff, do nothing, and secretly sigh relief that someone finally did something to stop Iran. In my opinion, Iran has sponsored the Palestinian rocket attacks on Israel to divert Israeli military resources away from them. Israel will be an incapable of fighting a two front war.

7. A power play, to take over MPS, will be attempted in 2009.  It may be the state or it may be Milwaukee, but someone will try, and fail, on their first attempt.

8. Beyonce Knowles will be the number one revenue-generating music artist in 2009.

9. Gold will break $965.00 per ounce in 2009.

10. Brett Favre will retire after the 2008 season and un-retire in 2009. I'm not kidding.

11. Thinking that America is on the brink of financial ruin, Al-Qaeda will hasten an attack on the U.S. to send panic into financial markets. That attempt will be unsuccessful.

12. The $50 billion Bernie Madoff ponzi scam will get the average and high end investor to reconsider their investment strategy. The desire to put full faith and confidence in stocks will wane and drive demand for real estate, specifically commercial real estate and raw land. Demand will grow in 2009 for a revenue-producing asset that won't vaporize to absolute zero, like Bernie's fund or GM stock.

13. The religion of global warming will be scientifically discredited in 2009. However, "global warmbies" will claim that the scientific data actually proves their theory. In other words they will use highly developed logic based on jujitsu: I know you are but what am I? It is my fervent hope that people in this country awaken to the dangers of the environmental movement. The "environmental" movement that tried to stop a solar energy plant in the Mojave Desert because of an endangered snake. It is a movement of dangerous hypocrites.

14. The New England Patriots will pull themselves up from the ashes and win the Super Bowl in 2010.

15. The threat of the looming sick pay mandate in Milwaukee County will be a growth benefit to surrounding counties.

Below are my predictions published in December 2007 and the results.  http://blogs.waukeshanow.com/blogage/archive/2007/12/31/predictions-2008.aspx

Note: I need to stop adding predictions in my predictions.

1. Milwaukee will loose SAB Miller/Coors as the corporate HQ to Golden Colorado. There are too many reasons to state here/now but I will have a whole entry on this in about a week. Hint: Taxes are a factor.

Correct by 100% Lack of leadership in this state was another huge factor. This was, sadly, too predictable. You may say ,my prediction is technically  wrong, it went to Chicago. The result is the same. This Chicago ploy, notwithstanding,  the HQ will wind up in Golden. CO is still working on this. WI has already given up.

2. After much huffing and puffing, Major League Baseball will see little, if any fan repercussion from Steroid Fest. The fans will remain as loyal, as they have after strike after strike, when they proclaim, "That's it! I am through with baseball (while they are writing their check to renew their season tickets). I also predict a slight drop in attendance from the average fans fed up with pro sports in general. Interest in HS baseball will increase in the Falls.

Correct by 100%  and incorrect by 100%

"The 2008 Major League Baseball regular season is the second highest attendance mark in history, drawing 78,624,324, falling just 1.14 percent below last year's record of 79,502,524 in paid attendance, a sign that baseball's popularity remains exceptionally strong.   NBA and NFL attendance was up too.

http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2510:inside-the-numbers-2008-mlb-attendance&catid=29:articles-a-opinion&Itemid=41

3. The High School renovation will complete on time and on budget.

100% Correct. An outstanding job by the entire team. Kudos to Dwight Crouse of the MFSD,  and Mile Lamp of CG Schmidt for running a tight ship. Projects of this magnitude, or any size, the that matter,  are fraught with problems. These guys kept it to a bare minimum.

4. Ted Kanavas will emerge as a viable candidate for Governor.

Incorrect by 100% MIA. Too bad.

5. Main Street will see the first sign of revitalization by the end of October.

Correct by 100% Construction/renovation on the new hotel began in early fall.   http://www.menomoneefallsnow.com/story/index.aspx?id=739371

6. Los Lobos will produce a soundtrack to a very popular movie and finally get the recognition they have long deserved, but never received. They were the best, original and pure band of the 90s and nobody has taken their place in the 00s.

Incorrect by 100% but I did get to see them in Waukegan and it was a fantastic show.

7. Hillary Clinton will easily win the Democratic nomination for President. After a brutal battle on the Republican side, Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination. Barack Obama will emerge as a major contender for 2012 after running a very smart and decent campaign. He should, but will not, be offered the VP position on the ticket keeping him weak on world affairs. John Edwards will surprise everyone with a strong but ineffective finish. Mike Huckabee will self-destruct and have no chance at a VP spot. He will consider a run as a 3^rd party candidate.

Not even close by 100% but what a lot to talk about here.

Democrats -- Hillary got a good old fashioned whooping from Obama but kept on fighting to the last delegate, It was strange how strong she finished by winning most of the states in last few months of the primaries but still coming up short.

Obama ran a smart and decent campaign and won the whole deal. He raised and spent a ton of money but people will not give you campaign money if they don't think you are going to win. Money is part of the democratic process. I thought Joe Biden could have been a disastrous pick but it obviously netted the desired result. Obama, not choosing Hillary as VP was consistent in running a smart campaign.

John Edwards did surprise everyone-but not as I predicted. Lay him down in the mass grave of pretenders (next to Elliott Spitzer) who boast to be champions of the little guy. It is because of the little people putting their faith in jerks like Edwards why the little guys will forever keep their lower status in life. Future crusaders like Spitzer/Edwards will fondly refer to the common man as chumps who never learn.

Republicans

I was constantly saddened when my first, second, and third, choice for the nomination was lost to someone who was not on my list at all. John McCain was "dead man walking" when I wrote my predictions in Dec. 2007. How he came back from out of nowhere is unbelievable.

Every Republican ran a poor campaign. To McCain's credit, he eventually ran a decent campaign that had some life to it. I was afraid of Campaign, Bob Dole II - the resuscitation, but it was better than I would have predicted. The introduction of Sarah Palin got Republicans excited and millions of Americans to pay more attention to the campaign. The election of a novice like Obama and the excitement over Palin tells me that America doesn't feel the need to have long time Washingtonians like Biden and McCain to move this country forward. Add me to that list.

The economic crisis took its toll on the party in charge and rightly so. McCain saw this coming and sounded the alarm but he did not make this an issue early in the campaign but only after it happened. That is not leadership.  Both parties need to be tarred and feathered on this debacle. The party in charge. when it blows up, gets the flogging.

8. Mitt Romney will win the Presidency in 2008. It will not be as close as earlier Presidential elections.

Incorrect by 100%  Mr. Obama won this election fair and square. He will be my President and he will be our President, I pray for him to do well.

There are some interesting historical notes to this campaign. For the 5^th time in a row, a combat veteran/hero has lost the Presidential election to a non veteran or non combat veteran. Clinton beat Bush I, Clinton beat Dole, Bush II beat Gore, Bush II beat Kerry, and Obama beat McCain.

In the history of the U.S. Presidency only two sitting Senators were ever elected President. Warren G. Harding and John F. Kennedy. Obama is only the 3^rd Senator to make it. Clinton or McCain would have had that distinction if they had won.

9. Brittany Spears will have a near death experience, either by her own intention or by personal abuse. Her life will not change. Paris Hilton will finally fall into the obscurity she richly deserves.

Correct by 100%  and Wrong by 50%   Brittany was admitted to a hospital twice in 2008, the first time about 2 weeks after I wrote the prediction. Paris was pretty much off the radar screen until she was featured in the Presidential campaign. She stunned everyone, including me, by making her own campaign video that articulated her energy policy. It made more sense than McCain's and Obama's combined. We are living in very strange times.

10. The new Milwaukee Police Chief will ruffle many feathers, get measurable results, and move on to a bigger challenge in 3 years. He will have many of the characteristics of the former, Chief Harold Brier that will endear him to some and be hated by many, but he will get results.

Correct by 80% The Chief is getting great results (murder rate dropping) which is the most important thing but he is getting more community support (or less protests) than I predicted.

11. Measurable progress by our troops in Iraq will lead Al-Qaeda to realize defeat and turn their efforts toward Pakistan. This will obviously have a major impact on the middle-east but will play a major development in the Afgan War.

100% correct. Folks, we have won the war in Iraq. Nobody wants to declare it but there it is. The day after I wrote these predictions Bhutto was assisinated in Pakistan. Afganistan, not Iraq was a minor issue in the Presidential election. Iraq was a non issue. There will be hot spots and some setbacks but Patreaus will go down in military history as a genius.

12. There will be no new fine dinning restaurant to replace Lohmann's. A local restaurant will emerge as thee place to have a Friday fish fry that will be recognized outside of Meno Falls as well.

Correct by 100% and wrong by 100% but the Bugline Restaurant in the Village Bowl is worth a 5^th visit and I will be bloging about it.

13. Wikipedia.org will have fierce competition from Google's new advance into online encyclopedias. Microsoft will soon join the fray with an online version to suplement Encarta. The battle will be over accuracy of information. This has been needed on the web for a long time. The biggest winners here will be everyone, especially students.

100% correct although Microsoft's engagement is low, probably due to intense interest in acquiring Yahoo.

 http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Search-Engines/Googles-Wikipedia-Answer-A-Second-Shooter-on-the-Google-KnolWikipedia-Battle/

14. Water battles will continue among communities, state, and federal agencies, demonstrating the growing importance of water as an economic resource. It will emerge as a great opportunity to bring people and jobs back to Wisconsin-if the politicos don't mess it up first.

100% Correct  The Small Business Times hosted a business development forum called Milwaukee, the Fresh Coast, emphasizing water as our greatest resource. The University of Wisconsin System Board of Regents will vote Friday on whether to establish a graduate-level School of Freshwater Sciences at UW-Milwaukee -- a unique program that aims to anchor the Milwaukee region as a global center of freshwater research. JSOnline. The state's "leadership" on this issue? Still working on getting, i.e., spending for,  mass transit.

15. General David Petraeus will be Time's Man of the Year - One year too late.

What was I thinking? It just made too much sense and I didn't consider it was an election year. Nevertheless, this is the one prediction that became truth and was never acknowledged.

Overall, how did I do?

Next week. Predictions 2009.

When buying gifts this year I reflected upon the gifts that made the greatest impact on me as a child and as an adult. There was a strong connection between the best gifts and my favorite Christmas memories.

1. As a child, my sister and I woke up at 5am to discover that our father had returned home Christmas Eve after being in the hospital from a near fatal accident the week before. We were fast asleep when my grandparents brought him home. Apparently he was released at 10pm by a sympathetic nursing staff. We were the first house in our neighborhood to have our lights on. I don't remember what present I received that year other than an appreciation of being a family.

2. On Christmas 1994 when it appeared that we had to look at alternatives to have a child we got the news that our prayers were answered and our next Christmas would be with our own baby-God willing.

3. On Christmas 2006 we were in China holding our miraculous baby girl. After years of paperwork, waiting, starts and stops, we were sitting in the hallway of our hotel with 12 other couples celebrating the same event.

4. In the spring of this year, after a year of other health problems, my mom was diagnosed with Leukemia and things did not look promising for her survival. Fortunately with more lab work and a very dedicated doctor the prognosis was changed to a rare, but not dangerous, blood disease. We will have mom for another Christmas this year.

The gifts just described came from a higher power and were non-returnable. These gifts helped form my life and came with instructions in the form of life lessons. May they help you reflect upon what you had, what you have and always will have, and what will, all too soon, leave this world.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

There is a wonderful Nativity collection from all every part of the world on display at Holy Cross Lutheran Church on Pilgrim Road, about a quarter mile south of Appleton.

Susanne and Bill Gay have been collecting Nativities for over thirty-five years. They generously provided their entire collection to be on permanent display at Holy Cross.

The collection has 563 Nativities (not all of them on display) from all over the world. They remind us of the gift of God creating humanity in God's image. The Nativities are created from every material imaginable, including rolled up newspaper (it is unbelievably beautiful and you won't recognize the material until you are less than 4 feet away from it).

The display cabinets, where the Nativities are displayed, are a work of art. Dean and Pam Essmann and the team at Essmann's Cabinetry & Millwork of Germantown designed and created the display cabinets.

This is quite a wonderful display of art, culture, artisanship pertaining to the most joyous event in humanity.